Rocket Science for Traders: Digital Signal Processing Applications this question feed

asked by spiderman on November 27, 2006 1:41 PM
Predict the future more accurately in today's difficult trading times
The Holy Grail of trading is knowing what the markets will do next. Technical analysis is the art of predicting the market based on tested systems. Some systems work well when markets are "trending," and some work well when they are "cycling," going neither up nor down, but sideways. In Trading with Signal Analysis, noted technical analyst John Ehlers applies his engineering expertise to develop techniques that predict the future more accurately in these times that are otherwise so difficult to trade. Since cycles and trends exist in every time horizon, these methods are useful even in the strongest bull--or bear--market.
John F. Ehlers (Goleta, CA) speaks internationally on the subject of cycles in the market and has expanded the scope of his contributions to technical analysis through the application of scientific digital signal processing techniques.


Reviews

Thumb_up
Thumb_down

0%
0%
I think this book is great even for non-math people. In fact, I am not good at math at all. I read it a couple of times and figured out what the author wanted to say.

This book is especially good for people who are interested in creating their own trading systems.

reviewed by shirley49 on November 29, 2006 5:57 PM

Thumb_up
Thumb_down

0%
0%
Whoever reads the reviews for this book will note the polarity: people either think it's wonderful or it's horrid. I'll try to give a more balanced review here.

* This book is for the mathematically/analytically inclined. If you don't consider yourself in this category, I would not suggest this book. At the VERY least you should have a solid background in trigonometry.

* This book is exactly what is says: Digital-Signal Processing (DSP) applied to stock trading. I myself am an Electrical Engineer who's day-job consists of about 90% DSP-work / 10% other tasks. For this reason, I believe I can fairly say that the DSP concepts presented are done so in a fairly clear and fairly accurate manner (this varies from time-to-time).

* Most of the concepts presented in Ehlers' book would be what I consider "traditional" DSP. There is a problem here (that is almost completely overlooked in the book): "Traditional" DSP is based on a series of assumptions that must be at least approximately fulfilled. Recent academic research has tended to show that stock-market "signals" tend NOT to fulfill these assumptions very well. In some ways, this puts a significant dent (in my view) in the theory used as the basis for the indicators derived.

* The attention to detail at times is very obtrusive to a reader with a keen eye and understanding of what is being described. For example: there is (what I consider to be) a glaring error in the MAMA filter that no one has ever pointed out and that is not corrected on his website. How has this escaped notice for so long? [Side note: be careful about his claim that MAMA's avoid whipsaws - they DON'T at all in ranging markets!]

* Two mechanical systems are described in detail in the book: the SineTrend Automatic System and the ZeroLag Intraday System. I have EXTENSIVELY tested both systems, exactly as described in the book, on a very-wide range of stocks, commodities, and currencies. These simulations were carried out using a test suite I had developed for my own use to simulate trading conditions as realistically as possible. This includes conservative, but realistic allowances for slippage, commissions ($15 round-turn), and signal reaction.

Ehlers results for the SineTrend Automatic System grab your attention in the book (greater than $100,000). However, no initial investment is listed in the book and one should be careful to note that these results are over a 15 year period. Assuming a $10000 initial investment (though this isn't specified in the book), this is a 17% annual return. Not bad, not great.

The REAL problem here is that a more realistic simulation shows that one is hard-pressed to show ANY profit on ANY type of stock/commodity/currency. I've tried the system (unaltered) on dozens of instruments, with a couple rather moderate successes and the rest losing money terribly, even with reasonable stop losses and money management.

* Almost (if not all) of Ehler's graphs in his book are from the same time series: specifically the US96H (March 1996 Treasury Bond contracts). I HAVE been able to reproduce all of the graphs in his book using the indicators: so there is no falsification in them, as implied in other reviews. However, the time period under consideration shows a series with nearly ideal characteristics for Ehlers systems, while almost all other series I've tested his indicators and systems on do not exhibit the same performance.

* MOST ALL of the information presented in his book is available for FREE download on his website as Word DOCs. There is also a lot of other papers he has written available on the site.

* Ehlers is doing what I think needs to be done in the trading industry: trying new techniques and methods. He has a good grasp of the electrical-engineering concepts and how to apply them to trading, but the results presented in his book are NOT indicative of TYPICAL results of the performance of his systems. The ideas and the theory behind them are, generally, good, though he is a bit prone in parts to handwaving and glossing-over of some obvious pitfalls (obvious, at least, to another electrical engineer).

* For the mathematically-inclined who enjoy working on their own ideas and own systems, this book could give you a lot of insight into technical trading and provide some good jumping-off points to developing systems that are TRULY profitable. I have yet to see (or develop) one that I would be willing to risk real money on and I would caution readers from thinking that either of the two systems presented will provide the type of profits described in the book.

To all others (probably the vast majority of those interested in this book!) I would say be very careful before spending your money on this. There is no reliably turn-key system provided in this book, even though there are two that are purported to be such.

reviewed by waltersmith on November 29, 2006 7:06 PM

Thumb_up
Thumb_down

0%
0%
I don't own this book, and I haven't read this book, so I could be way off. But based on the two pages I read using Amazon's new "read the page" feature, from a mathematical/scientific perspective I wouldn't touch this with a 200' pole (for the record: I have 3 graduate degrees in physics and mathematics, including a PhD, so my opinion of this guy's methodology should carry some weight). The way he explains the mathematics and science reads like something I'd expect in an essay from a (not too bright) College Sophomore: lots of handwaving and meaningless analogy, hoping that you don't know enough about the subject (and most of his audience doesn't) to distinguish valid argument from snake-oil.
reviewed by bugger on November 29, 2006 7:26 PM

Thumb_up
Thumb_down

0%
0%
This stuff may work, but you won't be able to prove it from the code in this book. It's broken. Since the same code was broken in his previous "MESA and Trading Cycles", my cynical nature tends to suspect that it wasn't intended to be workable at all. While you are watching his mathematical pea shuffling, you're supposed to get frustrated at being unable to duplicate his efforts and fork over more money for his disk. Or better still (for him anyway) purchase his very expensive trading signal service. Is the code on the disk broken? Caveat emptor. Does the trading signal service work? Caveat emptor.

The charts for claimed real example data carefully avoid showing you any dates lest you obtain that data and attempt to verify his work. And if you do find the corrections for his code on his website, you notice one of those corrections is broken also. So much for attention to detail for this guy. Is this someone to whom you want to trust your money? Ehlers appears to be a master shyster.

reviewed by sumbuddy on November 29, 2006 7:32 PM

Thumb_up
Thumb_down

0%
0%
...I have only read this book once and to be honest I will not read it again. I like the two indicators outlined in the book and I must admit that I use them in my systems but that is almost everything that I got out of the book. Instead of this one I would rather recommend "Trading Systems that Work".

Actually this book reminds me of "New Trading Dimensions" by Bill Williams...another true example of a guy who tries to take away your $$$ instead of letting you lose them in the stock market and thereby learn as much as you can from that particular book.

Good luck!

reviewed by jerseymike on November 29, 2006 7:33 PM

search

 
 

browse

book tags